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Just when you thought Irish Politics was going to resemble that of a modern European democracy i.e. focused on worthy, if incredibly dull policy platforms, rather than personalities, scandals and tribal loyalties. You encounter a real Irish Campaign which of course completely ignores policies for all of the rest of the above.
The first weeks of the campaign have been focused on who paid for the Taoiseach’s house, purchased just as Bertie Ahern believed he was about to become Taoiseach. The Taoiseach had given a detailed if confusing account (which in theory is confidential) to the Mahon Tribunal and lo and behold extracts have been leaked to the media. The junior coalition partners the Progressive Democrats started asking questions on Saturday and by Sunday it looked as if the Progressive Democrats were about to walk out of Government. By Monday it looked as if the PDs were simply looking for a statement clarifying the entire business which the Taoiseach promised to issue this week.
So what is the impact on the campaign? The first thing to understand is the Bertie Ahern is one of the most popular politicians in the country. The simple fact is that people actually like Bertie and as such are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Secondly amongst Fianna Fail people there is a sense that someone is trying to knife the Bert with a series of well timed leaks. Paradoxically this whole affair may actually increase the FF vote, as their supporters are energised to come out and vote to defend their man. However real success in Irish elections is based on securing 2nd, 3rd or even lower preference votes from the supporters of other parties. It is here that Fianna Fail candidates suffer, as they get an increased FF vote but fail to secure transfers. It is indeed shaping up to be a most interesting election.
Mr. Sarkozy won going away and put a serious dent in the socialist platform. But as is always the case in politics they honey moon is short lived. The real nemesis for Sarkozy lies ahead in the form of a picket line — organized labor. No country loves a good strike like France. In fact it is called out in the preamble to their constitution. Sarkozy will have to move delicately in taking on the million and half representatives of labor who have shown time and time again they can shut down the country and its economy. But at the same time we have seen the ineffectiveness of the approach taken by Chirac and Villepin who buckled at the first sign of a protest following their proposals on employment contracts a few years back.
Unfortunately, tough times require tough measures. And you don’t always win popularity contests when making such decisions. Thatcher took on the miners and won but at great political costs. But one could argue it set the course for Britain’s economic recovery. Similarly Ronald Reagan stance against the air traffic controllers drew a line in the sand with organized labor in the states. Granted the US and the UK aren’t France, but the similarities lie in the state of France at this moment. France a proud nation is currently looking at their shoes instead of sticking their chins out as they have so often done in the past.
Chirac a master politician was doing little to instill pride in the nation, other than an occasional thumb in the eye of America over international policies. That made for good theater but did little to reduce the size of the unemployment lines in the Republic. His last chance at drama will be when he begrudgingly hands over the codes to the nuclear arsenal on May 16th.
France is in a state of morass, as Jimmy Carter once said of the U.S., and it will take a strong leader to move them forward. Sarkozy has the will but if the trains aren’t running he may not be able to get to the office to do much about it.
With all 129 seats having been declared the final result is as follows:
SNP 47 Labour 46 Tories 17 Lib Dems 16 Greens 2 Independent 1
At present, the most obvious option for a coalition is the SNP with the LibDems and the Greens. Negotiations over the weekend are going to be very interesting
Scottish Election could end in a dead heat
The Scottish Election is poised for a nail biting finale. With 95 of the 129 seats declared the state of the parties is as follows:
Labour - 38 seats SNP - 34 seats Lib Dems - 12 seats Tories - 10 seats Greens - 1 seat
Of the remaining 34 seats still to be decided, 6 are constituency seats (First Past the Post) and 28 are on the Regional List.
The projected final result based on the latest information that can be obtained from the remaining constituencies still to be declared and the impact that this will have on the Regional List system, is as follows:
Labour 46 seats SNP 46 seats Lib Dems 17 seats Tories 17 seats Greens 2 seats Independent 1 seat
If cricket provides a window into the British soul, then Hurling could be said to do the same for the Irish. Hurling is Ireland’s national game. The easiest way to describe it, is ice hockey played on grass. It is a tough, high speed high scoring game that demands the skills of a juggler, the speed of a sprinter, the grace of a dancer and the soul of a warrior.It is a game that perhaps more than any other depends on mental attitude.
Wining in hurling depends on hunger. For the first time I am beginning to wonder if Fianna Fail after 10 years in power still has the hunger to win the election. Fianna Fail’s campaign has been a mess. As one former Labour strategist put it. “The entire Fianna Fail campaign was built around Bertie, now that he is trouble they have no plan B” Yesterday again the Taoiseach’s finances overshadowed the launch of the Fianna Fail Manifesto. The picture accompanying the story says it all. While the reappearance of veteran journalist Vincent Browne asking questions recalls the Haughey era.
There is no doubt about it the Fianna Fail Campaign is in trouble. However it would be foolish to write off Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail has some to the most experienced backroom staff in the business and can deploy some of the real big guns of Irish politics such as Brian Cowan Minister Mary Hanafin. But if Fianna Fail doesn’t get back into the game soon, the game will be over. If the faltering start to the campaign does not re-ignite their hunger to win they risk losing heavily. At its best when a team is in full flow its sometimes seems as if the game is playing the team, rather than the other way around. Losing teams rarely lose by a few points rather at some point in the game the losing team seem to suffer a mental collapse and the winning team surges ahead. It is now an open question whether Fianna Fail will react to recent events with a rally or collapse.
The result of the Scottish election remains too close to call. Owing to major problems in some areas with the electronic counting system, only 81 of the 129 seats have been declared.
Counting for the remainder of these seats re-commenced at midday.
Of the seats so far declared, the position is as follows:
Labour 32 seats SNP 29 seats Lib Dems 12 seats Tories 7 seats Greens 1 seat
At this stage, nobody is prepared to predict the final outcome.
The Scottish Election counts have been hit by major problems with seven counts suspended and an unprecedented number of spoilt ballot papers recorded.
There are fears the national figure for spoilt ballots could exceed 100,000.
The counts in Aberdeen, Argyll and Bute, Edinburgh, Eastwood, Perth and Tayside North and Strathkelvin and Bearsden were suspended until later on Friday due to technical problems.
The problem at the Strathkelvin and Bearsden count occurred when the computer system could not validate the votes that had been counted so far.
This means that that it will be later today before we know the final result.
Sarkozy and Royal have been fighting last night the very last round of this presidential election in this debate broadcasted almost everywhere in France. Jere is right: much ado about nothing. Apparently, the French do agree on this as the post-debate polls all point to the same conclusion: Sarkozy supporters are still, and even more, convinced that he is the right candidate for the presidency just as Royal’s supporters have been conforted in their choice that she is the best candidate to lead France.
More interesting is the poll results indicating that Bayrou’s supporters have been overall a bit more convinced by Sarkozy than by Royal: but in French politics, the tacit rule is “do not EVER trust centrist voters” as they may change their opinion in the very last minute…
Le Monde, France leading “elite” daily, endorsed Segolene Royal recently. Today its editor Jean-Marie Colombani pointed out interesting facts and conclusions drwan from last night’s debate. One should be of relevance for Americans: he talks about Sarkozy’s policies as being a kind of “compassionate conservatism” - keeping in mind that in France such comments and references to George Bush’s policy platform and concepts amount to a very sharp dagger under the journalist’s cloak.
However, Colombani admits in the end that however flawed Sarkozy’s program may be in his eyes, it has at least the merit of being politically coherent. So if the French choose him, they’ll know what to expect…
What’s an American to do when his command of the French language is limited to bonjour, merci and un baguette s’il vous plait? Turn down the volume and watch the body language. Going into last nights debate I thought Madame Royal needed to coax Monsieur Sarkozy into the middle of the ring and show his darker, meaner side. In fact, Sarko appeared to have turned the tides on her and got her to lose her temper over handicap children and schooling.
Polls gave the victory on the debate to Sarkozy, but polls are only as good as the questions they ask. I would give him the edge simply on my criteria that he kept his cool. There was nothing new covered in the debate and no great quotes that will be remembered like Lloyd Bentsen’s retort to Dan Quayle — “Senator you’re no Jack Kennedy.” A great quote, but hell everyone in America except for my dog and three year old niece already knew that.
But despite the barbs, it is interesting to watch the body language and presentation of the two candidates. Both always look impecable in their dress and presentation. If nothing else they serve as great fashion mentors to aspring politicians. (Footnote: wear a tie and lose the Members Only jacket to make an impression).
We will know more on Sunday if the debate moved the needle. Conventional wisdom says Sarkozy should win and all of my French colleagues say the same, but there have been other sure bets that did not pan out as expected.
I for one will not be surprised at all on Monday if I am prefacing the President of France’s surname with Madame.
The first few day of the campaign have not gone well for Fianna Fail. The Taosieach and the Fianna Fail Campaign have been plagued by questions in the media about payments made to him while he was Minister for Finance. It is hard to know if the public care that much about the allagations. Bertie Aherne lives a modest lifestyle and there is a real sense out there that the public do not believe he is or has been currupt. However there is only so much space on a page and if the hacks are writing about payments it is less space for Fianna Fail to get there message across. Fianna Fail are due to launch their proposals on stamp duty today. Stamp Duty is a tax paid on the purchase of a house is a major issue in property obsessed Ireland. Fianna Fail will be hoping that they can finaly go on the offensive.
Fine Gael (the main opposition party) have had a few dream days. Their leader Enda Kenny is looking like a man whose time has come while the party campaign has been looking smooth professional and competent. It used to be said that Fianna Fail liked to campaign while Fine Gael does it becuase it has to. In this campaign it looks like the positions have been reversed.
One of the funnier aspects of the campaign so far has been allegations that Angela Merkel is backing Enda Kenny becuase Fine Gael got one sixth of its posters printed in Germany. A Fianna Fail spokeperson even opinoned that Fine Gael were about to drop Irish Neutrality. Irish Neutrality is one of the great sacred cows of Irish politics, and one of the most difficult to explain to anyone who is not Irish. In essence it meas that we are not members of a military alliance. Fine Gael has always been a little bit sceptical of Irish Neutrality (Fine Gaelers tend to be rather logical) but the policy is hugely popular as it keeps Ireland out of any military activity bar UN peacekeeping missions and allows the Irish intelligentisia to adopt a position of moral superiority on international relations. As for the German posters, in a previous existence I received a letter from a German printer soliciting work for the election campaign and given the prices he was charging for posters Fine Gael would have idiots not book a batch with him.
The impact of the 2007 election cycle in five European states will be felt from Brussels to Beijing.
Edelman have invited our top European public affairs consultants to gather here and discuss the races, the candidates, the issues and what it all means.
Sponsored by Edelman.