Europe Decides

I understand that the Greens have been engaged in behind-the-scenes dealings in an attempt to bring the Liberal Democrats and the SNP together in coalition. The two Green MSPs have used the private negotiations that have been ongoing with the SNP to try to convince the Nationalists to move on the issue of a referendum on independence.

Rumour has it, that they have also offered to start formal talks with the Lib Dems without the SNP present, in an attempt to break the deadlock. The referendum issue has prevented any progress on a coalition deal between the SNP and the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems have insisted they will not even talk to the SNP unless the party drops its referendum plans. The SNP has refused to move on its manifesto commitment to hold a referendum during the lifetime of the parliament.

The Scottish Parliament has been put `on hold’ for a week because the parties cannot decide on a Presiding Officer.

The Presiding Officer is a politically neutral post with no voting power, so, in the new parliament, where every vote will be crucial, no party is willing to put forward a candidate and risk losing power.

However, the Scotland Act requires that parliament must meet within seven days of an election, and must elect a Presiding Officer at its first meeting. To get around the act, the Parliament will hold its first meeting today, with the swearing in of MSPs, but will be adjourned until Monday.

As many predicted, the Scottish Parliament election was just the start of the process for the formation of the new Scottish Executive. However, not many of us could have foreseen the chaos that took place with the ballots on the day. Around 100,000 ballots were spoilt as voters attempted to get to grips with the different voting systems for local and national government.

Leaving the high number of spoilt ballots aside, the results have not left us with a definitive answer. The Scottish National Party (SNP) are the largest party – but only by one seat – a seat which could be contested by Labour in a legal challenge (Cunninghame North).

This gives the SNP the right to form the next administration but their aspirations for building a coalition have been dampened by the decision by the Lib Dems not to support a party which is in favour of a referendum on Independence. A coalition between the other parties and the SNP is out of the question. Thus, we find ourselves in the position of the SNP pushing ahead with plans for a minority administration with only 47 out of 129 seats.

What is the implication for government in Scotland? It is my opinion that, should Alex Salmond be voted in as First Minister before 30th May, the key for an SNP minority administration will not be in the legislation introduced to the Parliament but in the allocation of the Budget, the day-to-day decisions taken by Scottish Ministers and their accountability to the Parliament. The constant threat of a ‘No Confidence’ vote has the potential to induce paralysis in the mechanics of Scottish government. Losing a vote on an Independence Referendum could produce just that.

With all 129 seats having been declared the final result is as follows:

SNP 47 Labour 46 Tories 17 Lib Dems 16 Greens 2 Independent 1

At present, the most obvious option for a coalition is the SNP with the LibDems and the Greens. Negotiations over the weekend are going to be very interesting

Scottish Election could end in a dead heat

The Scottish Election is poised for a nail biting finale. With 95 of the 129 seats declared the state of the parties is as follows:

Labour - 38 seats SNP - 34 seats Lib Dems - 12 seats Tories - 10 seats Greens - 1 seat

Of the remaining 34 seats still to be decided, 6 are constituency seats (First Past the Post) and 28 are on the Regional List.

The projected final result based on the latest information that can be obtained from the remaining constituencies still to be declared and the impact that this will have on the Regional List system, is as follows:

Labour 46 seats SNP 46 seats Lib Dems 17 seats Tories 17 seats Greens 2 seats Independent 1 seat

The result of the Scottish election remains too close to call. Owing to major problems in some areas with the electronic counting system, only 81 of the 129 seats have been declared.

Counting for the remainder of these seats re-commenced at midday.

Of the seats so far declared, the position is as follows:

Labour 32 seats SNP 29 seats Lib Dems 12 seats Tories 7 seats Greens 1 seat

At this stage, nobody is prepared to predict the final outcome.

The Scottish Election counts have been hit by major problems with seven counts suspended and an unprecedented number of spoilt ballot papers recorded.

There are fears the national figure for spoilt ballots could exceed 100,000.

The counts in Aberdeen, Argyll and Bute, Edinburgh, Eastwood, Perth and Tayside North and Strathkelvin and Bearsden were suspended until later on Friday due to technical problems.

The problem at the Strathkelvin and Bearsden count occurred when the computer system could not validate the votes that had been counted so far.

This means that that it will be later today before we know the final result.

The result of today’s Scottish Parliament Election could turn on the decision of the estimated 20% of voters who are still undecided. According to newspaper reports this morning, the outcome of the election is likely to be decided by the one in five of the likely voters who remain undecided, 50% of whom have previously supported Labour.

Over the past few days, all of the parties have made a final push to win over this crucial group. In particular, senior Labour Party figures yesterday made a `come home’ appeal to those people who previously supported them.

We will know early tomorrow, if this appeal has been successful and whether enough of these voters have returned home to secure a third election victory for Labour.

The SNP were given an election day boost today when a last-minute opinion poll gave them a clear lead over Labour.

Today’s YouGov survey put the SNP six points ahead in the constituency vote, five points ahead in the regional vote and predicted the party would end up with six more seats than Labour in the Scottish Parliament. Translated into seats, the SNP would have 45 seats to Labour’s 39, the Conservatives 17, the Lib Dems 16, the Greens 9 and others 3.

However, these predictions would leave the SNP unable to form a coalition with the Lib Dems alone. They would require the Greens to be part of a coalition, to have a majority.

That’s a stronger lead than forecast in two other polls published yesterday which suggested the Nationalists would emerge with just one or two seats more than Labour.

Blair’s last Scottish speech? Big picture Labour politics arrived in Scotland today. Speaking to a crowded room of Labour activists at the Edinburgh Corn Exchange the man who lead Labour to three general election victories was about to deliver one of his last speeches north of the border. The theme: separation and the SNP. Separation for Scotland is personal for Blair. Just as countries are coming closer together, borders becoming more meaningless by each technological or political advance and people’s uniting when once they were apart, the SNP want to put in place old divisions and the politics of blame pitching Scotland against England, the PM warned.

There is little doubt that Blair is an incredible orator – a view shared on a cross-party basis - and I should declare an interest as a Labour member here in the interests of transparency. Having listened to many of his speeches in the past from barnstorming performances at the Commons despatch box to what many believe to be his finest speech at Manchester’s Labour Conference last year. I’m familiar with the nervous energy and excitement that fills the hall before he speaks. But today felt different. There was a palpable sense of tension and a heightened sense of anticipation for this was to be one of Tony’s last performances to the Scottish party faithful, and everyone in the room knew it.

The media angle on today’s speech centred, quite naturally, on his announcement that ‘in a few weeks I won’t be Prime Minister anymore’. Probably just as well, as the other defining moment for the media doubters in the room was when the ‘Building Britain’ Labour branding fell off the podium - a classic political out-take. The really powerful moment for me, though, was when the PM cut through the political noise surrounding separation and got right to the core of the debate in a heart-felt and direct question: were people of Scotland more concerned about separation than education, healthcare and the economy?

How is separation the biggest political issue in Scotland at these elections? Could this be because the old issues aren’t there anymore? On the tenth anniversary of Labour’s victory the big headline worries of the late nineties seem, literally, ten years ago. Scotland is no longer crippled by unemployment, investment in public services is up with new schools and new hospitals in every community and the cities look forward not back with new economic dynamism and social responsibility (although I should qualify these by saying I’m wearing electioneering Labour pink tinted spectacles at present). Perhaps it is because creeky old schools and waiting lists lasting years are no longer part of modern Scotland that what are for many peripheral issues like separation have been allowed to creep onto the agenda. Perhaps it is also because so fundamental is the union that we (and by we I mean Brits) have taken it for granted. Or is this the natural time for the countries of Britain to go their own separate ways?

The SNP argue it is because Labour has failed to use its two terms in office in Scotland and three in London to deliver real benefits to the people of Scotland and argue that (probably because of the economic changes of the last ten years) Scotland can stand on its own two feet. Certainly unpopular decisions from Westminster over Iraq have not helped, something Blair himself acknowledged this morning. Separation’s an interesting one as the LibDems and the Tories seem to share a common view with Labour, to a point, in favour of the Union. Scottish Tories say that the Lib-Lab Executive have not promoted the positive case for the union and that this has allowed the negative case of ‘give us back our oil’, for instance, to take over. The LibDems, firm unionists and keen to say such, have declared their support for the union and attacked calls for a referendum but privately some conceded this is part of the bargaining package for a possible SNP-LD coalition should Labour’s time at the top come to an end on Thursday.

The look and feel of the Scottish campaign is now very different from where it was a few days ago even. I’ve noticed a change in the way average punters on the doorstep are now talking about the elections and the alternative governments on offer on Thursday. Having dismissed an SNP victory as a vagary of polling, as most commentators did a few months ago, Scots are now realising that Alex Salmond could be the First Minister come Friday. Reality bites. Labour is hoping that Scotland is waking up to the SNP - but this doesn’t mean they’re going to vote against it though. Indeed, to many the Braveheart-esque rallying call for independence is just what they’ve been after for some time.

Party politics aside, there is a real sense of passion in this election, a sense of different offers and debate. But also a sense that things are coming to an end and something new is happening.

On my way out of the Corn Exchange as Tony left the building his usual sign off of ‘bye guys’ really hit home. In what could be only a few days he will resign as Leader of the Labour Party and the Blair era will suddenly come to an end. People today knew this. There were even people crying as the PM left. Not soft people, but big hard ex-miner types, grand men of industrial experience for whom the PM represented an escape from poverty and despair. “Why are we getting rid of him?” one of them said to a much bemused journalist from one of the TV news channels. “Dunno,” he replied. The people of Scotland get to decide whether they want rid of Blair’s party in Scotland on Thursday.

Cross-posted at Despatch Blog.