Europe Decides

Today is polling day in Ireland, in what has turned out to be a fascinating election campaign, which despite what all the pundits have written may well see the return of the current Government. 84 is the magic number for an overall majority in the Dail, and to me it looks as if Fianna Fail is going to come back with 73 seats and the PDs their partner in Government around 5, if they can secure the support of a number of independents then they are back in power. If not it could be Fianna Fail and the Greens or failing that FF and the Labour party, the only racing certainty is that it will not be the Rainbow Coalition. Fine Gael will get about 44; Labour about 20 and the Greens between 8 and 10.

All of the party leaders have had mixed campaigns, Bertie Ahern had questions over his finances dominate the early part of the campaign to the delight of the media and the boredom of the electorate. Enda Kenny started well and ran an energetic campaign but stalled badly in his debate with the Taoiseach. Pat Rabitte ran a good campaign but his quip that Michael McDowell was like a menopausal Paris Hilton hurt him far more than it did McDowell. McDowell who is known as the Mad Mullah is not easily hurt by names, however Irish women did not take the quip so lightly. McDowell allowed himself to be damaged over claims in the media that the PDs were about to leave Government over Bertiegate but he bounced back in the debate between the Party Leaders where he demolished Gerry Adams on the economy. Gerry Adams came across as someone with only a nodding acquaintance with the Irish economy but can feel well pleased that the Sinn Fein machine will bring in a healthy increase in the number of seats they have. The Green Parties Trevor Sargent will see his parties vote increase and has a real chance of being in Government with Fianna Fail, but the final seat tally may well not reach the levels the Greens had been hoping for.

For Bertie Ahern getting back into Government for a historic third term is an achievement which will crown the career of one of Europe’s most successful politicians. Who else but the Bert could have persuaded Bill Clinton, George Mitchell, and Tony Blair to all appear in Party Political Broadcast. Who else but Bertie Ahern could have survived the media onslaught over his personal finances and come back with an increase in his poll numbers.

The events of the last few days have confirmed something I have suspected for some time on political matters: ignore the media and listen to my wife. On Monday the Irish Times published a poll which confirmed that Fianna Fail had surged by 5% over the last few days and that despite the media consensus Bertie Ahern had won the leaders debate. On reading the Sunday papers my wife had commented “were these guys watching the same debate we were”. My wife naturally leans to Fine Gael, and was if the truth be known hoping Enda Kenny would win, she certainly cheered loudly enough when he scored a debating point. But after the debate her view was the only issue Bertie had lost on was quality of life (not I may add an insignificant issue in a country where long commutes often mean the only time you see you kids is when they are asleep).

The poll results have re-energised Fianna Fail, in the debate Bertie Ahern believed he had found the chinks in Enda Kenny’s contract with the Irish people and since then Fianna Fail have been in full attack mode.

At this stage the election is too close to call, and will ultimately be as much about local political allegiances as national issues. It is a truism of Irish politics that every constituency has its own election campaign. Local loyalties, favours done by local politicians will all play a role. If you want to see local politics at its best check, out the website of Jackie Healy Rae. One of the last of the old school politicians, despised by the intelligentsia, Jackie was famously elected by the people who in his words “ eat their dinner in the middle of the day”. That is country people who eat their main meal at noon as distinct from urban professionals who have their main meal in the evening. Jackie is widely seen as vulnerable and with his back to wall has been pulling every stroke in the book. He raised a huge fuss when he discovered that ballot paper had been printed which misspelt his name as Ray instead Rae, but magnanimously conceded that it was human error rather than a conspiracy. The joke of course is that Rae is not part of his name but the town land where he was born; it is simply a way of distinguishing his family from the numerous other Healy’s in the locality. Last weekend he staged a rally in Kilorglan the likes of which had not been seen since the 1950’s flanked by an honour guard of men bearing flaming sods of turf (sods of peat soaked in petrol) he rallied more than a thousand of his supporters to urge them to come out canvass and get the vote out. I hope he makes it, the Dail would be a far less colourful place without him.

The week has seen two major televised debates on Wednesday, the leaders of the smaller parties Pat Rabbitte of Labour, Micheal McDowell of the Progressive Democrats, Trevor Sargent of the Greens and Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein all battled it out in a debate that for sheer entertainment value outclassed an episode of Friends. Michael McDowell has not had a good campaign so far and the political consensus is that my old employers the Progressive Democrats are in severe trouble. Faced with a situation where he was the object of attack from all the other participants, he reacted with a vintage McDowell performance, all guns blazing. He told the nation that he was surrounded by the Left (Rabitte) the hard left (Sinn Fein) and the left behinds ( the Greens). When Gerry Adams commented that his house was owned by the bank, McDowell swung back with “is that the Northern Bank” a reference to the largest bank robbery in Irish history and one blamed by many on the IRA. (Rumour has it that the robbery was the IRA’s pension plan). McDowell did not have all the best lines Pat Rabbitte referred to McDowell as behaving like a “menopausal Paris Hilton” a bizarre if colourful image.

Last night saw a much more serious debate between the two contenders for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny. Both men were very nervous, understandably so since the stakes are so high. The consensuses is that Bertie Ahern won on points but failed to deliver a knock out blow. The Taoiseach showed a commanding grasp of the issues and hit Enda Kenny on number of issues including crime, health and taxation, but he failed to annihilate Kenny. For Kenny survival is as good as victory, expectations amongst his own supporters were never high and the belief amongst the pol cors was that he was vulnerable. Surviving means he is still a contender.

As predicted on our last post the whiff of scandal has if anything increased Fianna Fail’s support with Fianna Fail bouncing back by 2% after a week of a campaign that could charitably be called lackluster if not downright lame. Fine Gael the main opposition party lost support while Labour their partners gained support.

As we move into next week the Government parties must regain the initiative, draw a line under the Bertigate issue and move the focus onto the economy. If this election is fought on public services the Government stands to lose. If however it is fought on the economy the Government stands a good chance of winning.

So far the economy has not been an issue, the spate of multi-national jobs losses which occurred a few months ago appear to have been forgotten by the public though consumer confidence has taken a battering. Even though Fianna Fail has seen its support the Progressive Democrats ( my old employers ) are trailing badly in the polls and according to some political correspondents now have no safe seats. The PDs are a small niche party who do not contest every constituency and their support is difficult to measure in a national poll. However they have been written off in every election since their founding and I have a suspicion that they will once more defy their critics. However they are in deeply uncomfortable territory and they will need to draw on the considerable reserves of intelligence and character if they are to weather the storm that now threatens them

Just when you thought Irish Politics was going to resemble that of a modern European democracy i.e. focused on worthy, if incredibly dull policy platforms, rather than personalities, scandals and tribal loyalties. You encounter a real Irish Campaign which of course completely ignores policies for all of the rest of the above.

The first weeks of the campaign have been focused on who paid for the Taoiseach’s house, purchased just as Bertie Ahern believed he was about to become Taoiseach. The Taoiseach had given a detailed if confusing account (which in theory is confidential) to the Mahon Tribunal and lo and behold extracts have been leaked to the media. The junior coalition partners the Progressive Democrats started asking questions on Saturday and by Sunday it looked as if the Progressive Democrats were about to walk out of Government. By Monday it looked as if the PDs were simply looking for a statement clarifying the entire business which the Taoiseach promised to issue this week.

So what is the impact on the campaign? The first thing to understand is the Bertie Ahern is one of the most popular politicians in the country. The simple fact is that people actually like Bertie and as such are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Secondly amongst Fianna Fail people there is a sense that someone is trying to knife the Bert with a series of well timed leaks. Paradoxically this whole affair may actually increase the FF vote, as their supporters are energised to come out and vote to defend their man. However real success in Irish elections is based on securing 2nd, 3rd or even lower preference votes from the supporters of other parties. It is here that Fianna Fail candidates suffer, as they get an increased FF vote but fail to secure transfers. It is indeed shaping up to be a most interesting election.

If cricket provides a window into the British soul, then Hurling could be said to do the same for the Irish. Hurling is Ireland’s national game. The easiest way to describe it, is ice hockey played on grass. It is a tough, high speed high scoring game that demands the skills of a juggler, the speed of a sprinter, the grace of a dancer and the soul of a warrior.It is a game that perhaps more than any other depends on mental attitude.

Wining in hurling depends on hunger. For the first time I am beginning to wonder if Fianna Fail after 10 years in power still has the hunger to win the election. Fianna Fail’s campaign has been a mess. As one former Labour strategist put it. “The entire Fianna Fail campaign was built around Bertie, now that he is trouble they have no plan B” Yesterday again the Taoiseach’s finances overshadowed the launch of the Fianna Fail Manifesto. The picture accompanying the story says it all. While the reappearance of veteran journalist Vincent Browne asking questions recalls the Haughey era.

There is no doubt about it the Fianna Fail Campaign is in trouble. However it would be foolish to write off Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail has some to the most experienced backroom staff in the business and can deploy some of the real big guns of Irish politics such as Brian Cowan Minister Mary Hanafin. But if Fianna Fail doesn’t get back into the game soon, the game will be over. If the faltering start to the campaign does not re-ignite their hunger to win they risk losing heavily. At its best when a team is in full flow its sometimes seems as if the game is playing the team, rather than the other way around. Losing teams rarely lose by a few points rather at some point in the game the losing team seem to suffer a mental collapse and the winning team surges ahead. It is now an open question whether Fianna Fail will react to recent events with a rally or collapse.

The first few day of the campaign have not gone well for Fianna Fail. The Taosieach and the Fianna Fail Campaign have been plagued by questions in the media about payments made to him while he was Minister for Finance. It is hard to know if the public care that much about the allagations. Bertie Aherne lives a modest lifestyle and there is a real sense out there that the public do not believe he is or has been currupt. However there is only so much space on a page and if the hacks are writing about payments it is less space for Fianna Fail to get there message across. Fianna Fail are due to launch their proposals on stamp duty today. Stamp Duty is a tax paid on the purchase of a house is a major issue in property obsessed Ireland. Fianna Fail will be hoping that they can finaly go on the offensive.

Fine Gael (the main opposition party) have had a few dream days. Their leader Enda Kenny is looking like a man whose time has come while the party campaign has been looking smooth professional and competent. It used to be said that Fianna Fail liked to campaign while Fine Gael does it becuase it has to. In this campaign it looks like the positions have been reversed.

One of the funnier aspects of the campaign so far has been allegations that Angela Merkel is backing Enda Kenny becuase Fine Gael got one sixth of its posters printed in Germany. A Fianna Fail spokeperson even opinoned that Fine Gael were about to drop Irish Neutrality. Irish Neutrality is one of the great sacred cows of Irish politics, and one of the most difficult to explain to anyone who is not Irish. In essence it meas that we are not members of a military alliance. Fine Gael has always been a little bit sceptical of Irish Neutrality (Fine Gaelers tend to be rather logical) but the policy is hugely popular as it keeps Ireland out of any military activity bar UN peacekeeping missions and allows the Irish intelligentisia to adopt a position of moral superiority on international relations. As for the German posters, in a previous existence I received a letter from a German printer soliciting work for the election campaign and given the prices he was charging for posters Fine Gael would have idiots not book a batch with him.

It is doubtful that a change of Government would lead to a change in Ireland’s relationship with the US which is based not only on economics but on shared cultural links as a result of large scale US emigration to the US in the 19th and 20th century’s. Summers spent working in the US are an Irish right of passage and most of us of a certain age will have fond memories of the Irish quarters of New York, Boston, Chicago and San Fran. However that is not to say that Ireland does not share many of the European concerns about the war in Iraq and the practice of extraordinary rendition flights. There were large protests in Dublin at the start of the US-Iraq war and Irish public opinion has cooled from its former entirely positive view of the US. The days are long past when the two pictures of world leaders to be found in Irish homes were the Pope and President John F.Kennedy. However the tires which bind are still strong.

US firms in Ireland employ approximately 120,000 people while Irish firms in the US employ a similar amount of people. Iconic companies such as Intel, Microsoft, Accenture and Dell all have large operations and the image of Ireland as a the economic equivalent of US Aircraft carrier off the coast of Europe is not entirely inaccurate. Major Irish firms such as Kerry Group and CRH have traditionaly looked to the US when planning expansions so there exists a huge community of interest in keeping the relationship on a very positive keel.

Foreign Affairs rarely if ever features in Irish elections and I doubt very much that this will be different. However as this link from Richard Delevan’s blog makes clear, US consultants are having an influence on the election as indeed Irish consultants have had on European elections. Some years ago I mentioned to a friend that I had just come back from a project in Serbia (where I was working with the UNDP on Information Society issues) to be told that I should have a chat with PJ who had just got the Croatian government elected. PJ of course is the legendary PJ Mara the uber spindoctor of Fianna Fail who had indeed been active in Croatia and is now back in action in Ireland. In politics as in every other sphere we live in a increaseingly connected world.

Fianna Fail are delighted that Fine Gael is attempting to undermine the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, by leaking stories to the media that Ahern had been seen carrying a suitcase full of cash out of the country. Stories which the Taoiseach has thoroughly discredited.

Fianna Fail as a party have had a colourful history and finding themselves on the high moral ground is a bit of a new experience (one which they are enjoying immensly). In this story, Jim Higgins confirms that he was told by a senior FG figure that FG had in fact contacted the papers in spite of denials issued by Fine Gael, and it will no doubt contribute to Fianna Fail delight and Fine Gael discomfort.

In a seperate development Fianna Fail deployed the big guns of Minister for Finance Brian Cowan and Minster for Enterprise Michael Martin to attack Labour and the Greens on taxation policy. As fears for the economy grow tax policy will become an ever more important battleground for all the parties with the Government hoping to seed doubts that the opposition can be trusted on the economy.

For the first time in many years the Irish economy seems to be slowing and voters are begining to focus on the economy as an issue. This article looks at what this could mean for the current Government’s chances of reelection. It appeared in Business and Finance, Ireland’s leading business magazine.

Another development in this election has been a dramatic surge in support for the Green Party and concern about green issues in general. More information on that phenemenon here.