Europe Decides

Today is polling day in Ireland, in what has turned out to be a fascinating election campaign, which despite what all the pundits have written may well see the return of the current Government. 84 is the magic number for an overall majority in the Dail, and to me it looks as if Fianna Fail is going to come back with 73 seats and the PDs their partner in Government around 5, if they can secure the support of a number of independents then they are back in power. If not it could be Fianna Fail and the Greens or failing that FF and the Labour party, the only racing certainty is that it will not be the Rainbow Coalition. Fine Gael will get about 44; Labour about 20 and the Greens between 8 and 10.

All of the party leaders have had mixed campaigns, Bertie Ahern had questions over his finances dominate the early part of the campaign to the delight of the media and the boredom of the electorate. Enda Kenny started well and ran an energetic campaign but stalled badly in his debate with the Taoiseach. Pat Rabitte ran a good campaign but his quip that Michael McDowell was like a menopausal Paris Hilton hurt him far more than it did McDowell. McDowell who is known as the Mad Mullah is not easily hurt by names, however Irish women did not take the quip so lightly. McDowell allowed himself to be damaged over claims in the media that the PDs were about to leave Government over Bertiegate but he bounced back in the debate between the Party Leaders where he demolished Gerry Adams on the economy. Gerry Adams came across as someone with only a nodding acquaintance with the Irish economy but can feel well pleased that the Sinn Fein machine will bring in a healthy increase in the number of seats they have. The Green Parties Trevor Sargent will see his parties vote increase and has a real chance of being in Government with Fianna Fail, but the final seat tally may well not reach the levels the Greens had been hoping for.

For Bertie Ahern getting back into Government for a historic third term is an achievement which will crown the career of one of Europe’s most successful politicians. Who else but the Bert could have persuaded Bill Clinton, George Mitchell, and Tony Blair to all appear in Party Political Broadcast. Who else but Bertie Ahern could have survived the media onslaught over his personal finances and come back with an increase in his poll numbers.