Europe Decides

Just when you thought Irish Politics was going to resemble that of a modern European democracy i.e. focused on worthy, if incredibly dull policy platforms, rather than personalities, scandals and tribal loyalties. You encounter a real Irish Campaign which of course completely ignores policies for all of the rest of the above.

The first weeks of the campaign have been focused on who paid for the Taoiseach’s house, purchased just as Bertie Ahern believed he was about to become Taoiseach. The Taoiseach had given a detailed if confusing account (which in theory is confidential) to the Mahon Tribunal and lo and behold extracts have been leaked to the media. The junior coalition partners the Progressive Democrats started asking questions on Saturday and by Sunday it looked as if the Progressive Democrats were about to walk out of Government. By Monday it looked as if the PDs were simply looking for a statement clarifying the entire business which the Taoiseach promised to issue this week.

So what is the impact on the campaign? The first thing to understand is the Bertie Ahern is one of the most popular politicians in the country. The simple fact is that people actually like Bertie and as such are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Secondly amongst Fianna Fail people there is a sense that someone is trying to knife the Bert with a series of well timed leaks. Paradoxically this whole affair may actually increase the FF vote, as their supporters are energised to come out and vote to defend their man. However real success in Irish elections is based on securing 2nd, 3rd or even lower preference votes from the supporters of other parties. It is here that Fianna Fail candidates suffer, as they get an increased FF vote but fail to secure transfers. It is indeed shaping up to be a most interesting election.