Europe Decides

There has been a lot of spin from all the parties in the run up to the ”Super Duper Thursday” elections on 03 May. To listen to certain Labour and Lib Dem friends of mine if either party is left with any councillors AT ALL in South East England on 04 May it will be a triumph of epic proportions. Similarly, to listen to Tory chums one could be left with the impression that anything over a couple of hundred gains in England and the party is well on its way to Downing Street - and of course, they expect to lose ALL their MSPs in Scotland blah blah blah…

Being as objective as I can (and I was a Lib Dem staffer for many years, so please bear that in mind) let’s try and define what ‘good’ genuinely looks like for the parties in May:

Labour

Governments of all colours get kicked at mid-term elections in the UK, Labour will claim. There is some justification for this…but only some. What matters is the degree of the kicking! If Labour lose fewer than 300 councillors in England it will indeed be a good result for them. 300 - 600 will be bad, but not awful. Anything over 600 will be a battering. Personally I think they could lose up to 700. They should remain the largest party in the Welsh Assembly, but will lose seats. The silver lining on their psephological cloud will be if they can remain the largest party in Scotland. To be overtaken by the SNP in conjunction with a battering England will be very bad news indeed. It is certainly a possibility.

Conservatives

The Conservatives will do well in England. No doubt about it. Most of the seats up for election are in the shire districts - their happiest hunting ground. So, the question is only how well. 500+ gains are a near certainty, less than that would be pretty odd giving the Government’s non-Midas touch at the moment. Anything over 750 gains and the Tories can be well-pleased. The crucial test is whether they can poll over 40%. Given that national opinion polls put them in the high 30s this is achievable. The bad news for David Cameron, if there is to be any, will be in Scotland. He is not that popular north of the border, his party has only 1 MP and a membership and activist base that has been comatose in recent years. If the Conservatives hold their 17 MSPs it will be reasonable, but this is already a low base to go down further from. As Oscar Wilde may have said “to lose one MSP may be considered a misfortune, but to lose two would be downright carelessness.” We shall see.

Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems will certainly have a mixed set of results in these elections. I fully expect that they could lose 200+ seats in England. Anything less than that will be OK (though not good exactly), anything much higher would be bad news. This is the biggest round of elections in our political cycle; stretching the party’s resources more than their two bigger rivals. The Lib Dems are powerful campaigners, but they are most successful when they can target. Good news will come, they hope, from the devolved elections. Picking up seats in Wales is a possibility and will show the party is capable of building on their gains in the principality at the last General Election. Similarly in Scotland the party may gain seats. This is particularly impressive given that they have been in coalition government with Labour for the last 8 years. This would point to further gains in Scotland at the next General Election. Their fingers are crossed!

The Nationalists

Plaid Cymru should pick up a few seats in Wales, but will not come anywhere near Labour. All eyes are therefore on Scotland where opinion polls still point to substantial SNP gains. Anything over 40 seats will be very good for the Nats. Anything nearer to 50 will be a triumph! Labour have less than two weeks to turn it around….