Copyright © 2007 Edelman Worldwide. All rights reserved.
Today is polling day in Ireland, in what has turned out to be a fascinating election campaign, which despite what all the pundits have written may well see the return of the current Government. 84 is the magic number for an overall majority in the Dail, and to me it looks as if Fianna Fail is going to come back with 73 seats and the PDs their partner in Government around 5, if they can secure the support of a number of independents then they are back in power. If not it could be Fianna Fail and the Greens or failing that FF and the Labour party, the only racing certainty is that it will not be the Rainbow Coalition. Fine Gael will get about 44; Labour about 20 and the Greens between 8 and 10.
All of the party leaders have had mixed campaigns, Bertie Ahern had questions over his finances dominate the early part of the campaign to the delight of the media and the boredom of the electorate. Enda Kenny started well and ran an energetic campaign but stalled badly in his debate with the Taoiseach. Pat Rabitte ran a good campaign but his quip that Michael McDowell was like a menopausal Paris Hilton hurt him far more than it did McDowell. McDowell who is known as the Mad Mullah is not easily hurt by names, however Irish women did not take the quip so lightly. McDowell allowed himself to be damaged over claims in the media that the PDs were about to leave Government over Bertiegate but he bounced back in the debate between the Party Leaders where he demolished Gerry Adams on the economy. Gerry Adams came across as someone with only a nodding acquaintance with the Irish economy but can feel well pleased that the Sinn Fein machine will bring in a healthy increase in the number of seats they have. The Green Parties Trevor Sargent will see his parties vote increase and has a real chance of being in Government with Fianna Fail, but the final seat tally may well not reach the levels the Greens had been hoping for.
For Bertie Ahern getting back into Government for a historic third term is an achievement which will crown the career of one of Europe’s most successful politicians. Who else but the Bert could have persuaded Bill Clinton, George Mitchell, and Tony Blair to all appear in Party Political Broadcast. Who else but Bertie Ahern could have survived the media onslaught over his personal finances and come back with an increase in his poll numbers.
Nicolas Sarkozy had promised he would overhaul France. He starts by overhauling its administration – quite symbolic in France. The new Ministries to be created will reflect the changes in policy and the change he wishes to publicize to his electors.
Two major changes stand out: the break-up in two parts of the almighty Finances Ministry (“Minefi”) and the regrouping under the banner of Sustainable Development of Transportation, Environment, Industry and Territorial Management (plus maybe also Energy Policy but this tricky one is still being fought for).
So there are now a Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Territory Management & Development” (sounds awful in English, and even in French…); a Ministry of the Economy, Finances & Employment and a Budget, Public Accounts & Civil Service Ministry.
Sarkozy ensured that the newborn Environment Ministry is led by a heavyweight by naming former Prime Minister Alain Juppé. The two others will be led, respectively, by former Social & Employment Affairs Jean-Louis Borloo and former UMP CFO MP Eric Woerth.
You may wonder why the policy areas these last two cover have similar-sounding names. Well, despite the names they will have different responsibilities: Borloo for economic strategy, employment and finances, while Woerth will have the civil servants, the Social Security budget and… finances. At this stage it seems unclear what exact power Borloo will have with the budget.
More soon.
The events of the last few days have confirmed something I have suspected for some time on political matters: ignore the media and listen to my wife. On Monday the Irish Times published a poll which confirmed that Fianna Fail had surged by 5% over the last few days and that despite the media consensus Bertie Ahern had won the leaders debate. On reading the Sunday papers my wife had commented “were these guys watching the same debate we were”. My wife naturally leans to Fine Gael, and was if the truth be known hoping Enda Kenny would win, she certainly cheered loudly enough when he scored a debating point. But after the debate her view was the only issue Bertie had lost on was quality of life (not I may add an insignificant issue in a country where long commutes often mean the only time you see you kids is when they are asleep).
The poll results have re-energised Fianna Fail, in the debate Bertie Ahern believed he had found the chinks in Enda Kenny’s contract with the Irish people and since then Fianna Fail have been in full attack mode.
At this stage the election is too close to call, and will ultimately be as much about local political allegiances as national issues. It is a truism of Irish politics that every constituency has its own election campaign. Local loyalties, favours done by local politicians will all play a role. If you want to see local politics at its best check, out the website of Jackie Healy Rae. One of the last of the old school politicians, despised by the intelligentsia, Jackie was famously elected by the people who in his words “ eat their dinner in the middle of the day”. That is country people who eat their main meal at noon as distinct from urban professionals who have their main meal in the evening. Jackie is widely seen as vulnerable and with his back to wall has been pulling every stroke in the book. He raised a huge fuss when he discovered that ballot paper had been printed which misspelt his name as Ray instead Rae, but magnanimously conceded that it was human error rather than a conspiracy. The joke of course is that Rae is not part of his name but the town land where he was born; it is simply a way of distinguishing his family from the numerous other Healy’s in the locality. Last weekend he staged a rally in Kilorglan the likes of which had not been seen since the 1950’s flanked by an honour guard of men bearing flaming sods of turf (sods of peat soaked in petrol) he rallied more than a thousand of his supporters to urge them to come out canvass and get the vote out. I hope he makes it, the Dail would be a far less colourful place without him.
The week has seen two major televised debates on Wednesday, the leaders of the smaller parties Pat Rabbitte of Labour, Micheal McDowell of the Progressive Democrats, Trevor Sargent of the Greens and Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein all battled it out in a debate that for sheer entertainment value outclassed an episode of Friends. Michael McDowell has not had a good campaign so far and the political consensus is that my old employers the Progressive Democrats are in severe trouble. Faced with a situation where he was the object of attack from all the other participants, he reacted with a vintage McDowell performance, all guns blazing. He told the nation that he was surrounded by the Left (Rabitte) the hard left (Sinn Fein) and the left behinds ( the Greens). When Gerry Adams commented that his house was owned by the bank, McDowell swung back with “is that the Northern Bank” a reference to the largest bank robbery in Irish history and one blamed by many on the IRA. (Rumour has it that the robbery was the IRA’s pension plan). McDowell did not have all the best lines Pat Rabbitte referred to McDowell as behaving like a “menopausal Paris Hilton” a bizarre if colourful image.
Last night saw a much more serious debate between the two contenders for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny. Both men were very nervous, understandably so since the stakes are so high. The consensuses is that Bertie Ahern won on points but failed to deliver a knock out blow. The Taoiseach showed a commanding grasp of the issues and hit Enda Kenny on number of issues including crime, health and taxation, but he failed to annihilate Kenny. For Kenny survival is as good as victory, expectations amongst his own supporters were never high and the belief amongst the pol cors was that he was vulnerable. Surviving means he is still a contender.
Dominique de Villepin, who was President Chirac’s Prime Minister for 714 long, hard days, gave his formal resignation to the President this afternoon. Unusually for a French politician, he is expected to go back to private life and leave politics aside. There is an afterlife even for Prime Ministers… in Harvard, as it is rumoured?
The Prime Minister’s resignation is the last formal step before the outgoing President hands the executive power to his newly-elected successor. However, this does not mean Nicolas Sarkozy has not started pushing his agenda: amid the usual rumours about potential picks for the restricted 15-member Government expected to be named between Thursday and Monday, a few names have already popped up and a few heads rolled down: a new head of police forces (DGPN), the expected dismissal of the DST (the “French MI5″), etc.
Sarkozy is “locking the doors” before he goes on with more public policy annnouncements next week. He does not seem intent to a complete revamping of the French “système des dépouilles” (executive privilege over top jobs picks) as he had promised, though. Maybe later?
As predicted on our last post the whiff of scandal has if anything increased Fianna Fail’s support with Fianna Fail bouncing back by 2% after a week of a campaign that could charitably be called lackluster if not downright lame. Fine Gael the main opposition party lost support while Labour their partners gained support.
As we move into next week the Government parties must regain the initiative, draw a line under the Bertigate issue and move the focus onto the economy. If this election is fought on public services the Government stands to lose. If however it is fought on the economy the Government stands a good chance of winning.
So far the economy has not been an issue, the spate of multi-national jobs losses which occurred a few months ago appear to have been forgotten by the public though consumer confidence has taken a battering. Even though Fianna Fail has seen its support the Progressive Democrats ( my old employers ) are trailing badly in the polls and according to some political correspondents now have no safe seats. The PDs are a small niche party who do not contest every constituency and their support is difficult to measure in a national poll. However they have been written off in every election since their founding and I have a suspicion that they will once more defy their critics. However they are in deeply uncomfortable territory and they will need to draw on the considerable reserves of intelligence and character if they are to weather the storm that now threatens them
The “third man” is in dire straits. François Bayrou, who before the first round of the presidential election was courted by both left and right, became a pariah after Sunday’s coronation of Sarkozy by the French.
Although he theoretically wields significant political power with his 18.5% of the vote, he has to prepare for the general elections due in June. And this is where it hurts: 22 out of the 27 MPs the UDF has at the Assemblée nationale have chosen to rally Sarkozy. They wish to be re-elected, and the only way to do so in the current situation is to please Sarkozy so that he does not push for a UMP candidate in their constituency – in the past this ensured them election as they gathered all votes from the right. Another right-wing candidate would split the vote and eliminate them.
Bayrou is due to announce today the creation of his brand new center party, the Mouvement Democrate (MD) with a little help from his 7 friends left. We’ll know more after his press conference this afternoon, but the MD’s prospects at the general elections look very pale.
Is this yet another sign of the clear “great divide” of French politics? Once again the centrists’ dream to create a genuine, powerful center party looks doomed.
I understand that the Greens have been engaged in behind-the-scenes dealings in an attempt to bring the Liberal Democrats and the SNP together in coalition. The two Green MSPs have used the private negotiations that have been ongoing with the SNP to try to convince the Nationalists to move on the issue of a referendum on independence.
Rumour has it, that they have also offered to start formal talks with the Lib Dems without the SNP present, in an attempt to break the deadlock. The referendum issue has prevented any progress on a coalition deal between the SNP and the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems have insisted they will not even talk to the SNP unless the party drops its referendum plans. The SNP has refused to move on its manifesto commitment to hold a referendum during the lifetime of the parliament.
The Scottish Parliament has been put `on hold’ for a week because the parties cannot decide on a Presiding Officer.
The Presiding Officer is a politically neutral post with no voting power, so, in the new parliament, where every vote will be crucial, no party is willing to put forward a candidate and risk losing power.
However, the Scotland Act requires that parliament must meet within seven days of an election, and must elect a Presiding Officer at its first meeting. To get around the act, the Parliament will hold its first meeting today, with the swearing in of MSPs, but will be adjourned until Monday.
As many predicted, the Scottish Parliament election was just the start of the process for the formation of the new Scottish Executive. However, not many of us could have foreseen the chaos that took place with the ballots on the day. Around 100,000 ballots were spoilt as voters attempted to get to grips with the different voting systems for local and national government.
Leaving the high number of spoilt ballots aside, the results have not left us with a definitive answer. The Scottish National Party (SNP) are the largest party – but only by one seat – a seat which could be contested by Labour in a legal challenge (Cunninghame North).
This gives the SNP the right to form the next administration but their aspirations for building a coalition have been dampened by the decision by the Lib Dems not to support a party which is in favour of a referendum on Independence. A coalition between the other parties and the SNP is out of the question. Thus, we find ourselves in the position of the SNP pushing ahead with plans for a minority administration with only 47 out of 129 seats.
What is the implication for government in Scotland? It is my opinion that, should Alex Salmond be voted in as First Minister before 30th May, the key for an SNP minority administration will not be in the legislation introduced to the Parliament but in the allocation of the Budget, the day-to-day decisions taken by Scottish Ministers and their accountability to the Parliament. The constant threat of a ‘No Confidence’ vote has the potential to induce paralysis in the mechanics of Scottish government. Losing a vote on an Independence Referendum could produce just that.
The impact of the 2007 election cycle in five European states will be felt from Brussels to Beijing.
Edelman have invited our top European public affairs consultants to gather here and discuss the races, the candidates, the issues and what it all means.
Sponsored by Edelman.